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Should I stay or should I go?
Jul. 20th, 2006 07:13 pmThroughout this current hurricane season, our research group will be interviewing people in high hurricane risk counties from Texas to North Carolina on their preparedness for a major hurricane. The purpose of these surveys is to advise the CDC and state public health officials on steps they can take before a major hurricane hits to help people prepare and perhaps to save lives. Today we released the results of a baseline survey designed to measure preparedness before the arrival of any major storms. One of the main findings has to do with how many people might not leave if government officials said they had to evacuate due to a major hurricane.
Later this summer, we will conduct interviews in areas threatened by specific Category 3+ hurricanes just two days before a storm’s arrival. As a way of making sure we can get into the field quickly, two of us are signed up for the National Hurricane Center’s tropical storm email alerts. They arrive every six hours when things are quiet, but far more frequently when a storm is forming.
For instance, a tropical storm (Beryl) started forming on Tuesday, and over the past 56 hours, I have received 51 emails about that storm. Among other things, the alerts show, for each of three ranges of wind speed, the likelihood (in %s) that any of about 30 places on the estimated path will encounter wind speeds of that magnitude from the storm in each of ten different time periods covering the next five days. This is number-geek paradise. And if the NHC sends 51 alerts in 56 hours for a dinky little storm like Beryl (James Norrington could have sailed through this one undamaged), how crazy will it get when there’s an ass-kicking hurricane on its way?
Later this summer, we will conduct interviews in areas threatened by specific Category 3+ hurricanes just two days before a storm’s arrival. As a way of making sure we can get into the field quickly, two of us are signed up for the National Hurricane Center’s tropical storm email alerts. They arrive every six hours when things are quiet, but far more frequently when a storm is forming.
For instance, a tropical storm (Beryl) started forming on Tuesday, and over the past 56 hours, I have received 51 emails about that storm. Among other things, the alerts show, for each of three ranges of wind speed, the likelihood (in %s) that any of about 30 places on the estimated path will encounter wind speeds of that magnitude from the storm in each of ten different time periods covering the next five days. This is number-geek paradise. And if the NHC sends 51 alerts in 56 hours for a dinky little storm like Beryl (James Norrington could have sailed through this one undamaged), how crazy will it get when there’s an ass-kicking hurricane on its way?
